EAST COAST DIGITAL PROGRAMME

Infrastructure and Construction

Record date: 31 March 2026

Whole-life cost: £3.0bn
Published schedule: 01/05/2017 – 14/10/2030
NISTA delivery confidence: RED
Senior responsible owner: Cavendish Elithorn

What the project is for

The East Coast Digital Programme (ECDP) will implement the European Train Control System (ETCS) on 100 miles of the East Coast Mainline (ECML) between Kings Cross and Stoke Tunnel just south of Grantham, as well as on the Northern City Line (NCL) between Moorgate and Finsbury Park. The ECDP is the UK’s first implementation of ETCS on a mixed-use (freight and passenger trains) UK mainline route and will involve a major change in working practices for the rail industry. ETCS communicates signalling information into the driver’s cab in real-time, constantly updating how far ahead the train is authorised to move and providing optimal speed information. It removes the need for conventional lineside ‘traffic light’ signals, allowing for less-disruptive installation and maintenance. As well as having a lower whole life cost than conventional signals, ETCS on the NCL and the ECML will enhance operational resilience, is safer for passengers and rail workers, and has a 40% reduction in whole-life CO2 emissions through reduced use of materials compared to conventional signalling. ETCS also has the potential to unlock significant passenger and freight benefits through delivering an improvement in system capability of between 10 and 25%.

Departmental delivery commentary

Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the National Infrastructure & Service Transformation Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 25/26-Q4 is at RED. The NISTA review team noted that the partnership model continues to be the correct approach, and there have been positive changes in programme leadership. The review team highlighted that there is a need to re-baseline the programme, and that the programme is complex with several risks to delivery. They raised 19 recommendations to address. Recommendations include in the areas of ETCS freight train retrofitment, clearer accountabilities of leadership, and to continue the early identification of emerging risks to delivery.

Schedule

Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's baselined end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained at 14/10/2030. This date will be subject to a rebaseline exercise during 2026. The ECDP’s schedule has been set up to deliver ETCS on the ECML in a phased migration. The full migration to ETCS operations on the Northern City Line with the removal of conventional signals was achieved as planned in May 2025. In FY25/26, activities have focused on enabling works for the ETCS section on the ECML between Welwyn to Hitchin to provide a driver training area, due to enter into service August 2026. Works have included vehicle fitment, on-track testing and systems assurance. This milestone forecast has moved from December 2025 to August 2026, due to encountering challenges around system testing and assurance that will provide lessons for future ETCS schemes. The first mainline route section, originally due April 2027, is subject to change control as part of the rebaseline exercise.

Cost

Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 increased from £3,465m to £3,764m (in Nominal Prices). The programme anticipates that inflation will materialise as a key issue in the later years of the programme. As we move into the 2026-27 reporting cycle, the key risk to maintaining overall programme cost will be the cost of vehicle fitment and ETCS trackside infrastructure on the ECML. The programme is actively looking at how these costs can be managed whilst protecting the programme’s benefits. While delivery continues, ECDP is also maturing its delivery model to ensure it remains the enabler for future ETCS schemes.

Benefits

Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed benefits at 25/26 Q4 remained at £2,783m (In Nominal £ Benefits). Benefits will be subject to a refresh during 2026. The benefits figure includes quantified performance, safety, socio-economic, environmental and wider economic monetised benefits.